Okay who thinks they are across the recent developments in the tech space?
How many of you are familiar with Moore’s Law? Moore’s law suggests that (and I apologise in advance that I am not providing the precise technical definition) computing power doubles every two years. It was named after one of the founders of Intel and has held good for approximately 50 years. Put simply advances in the computing space are quick.
Next question. Who noted the prediction from Google’s director of engineering Ray Kurzeil two years ago, that by 2029 computers will be more intelligent than the smartest human beings? How do you feel about this?
A third question if I may. How many of you closely followed the ‘Go’ world championship which was decided in March this year. You know, ‘Go’, that 2500 year game that is notoriously difficult to play? Not many?
Well if you had then you would realise that in March 2016, an AI program created by a Google owned company, DeepMind, defeated the World champion of that board game, a game which many consider to be one of the most challenging games in existence and one that requires level of intelligent thought far beyond the capability of most of us. So does that 2029 date still look reliable?
Finally, who has heard of ‘SKYNET’? No not the one from the movie. The real one that actually exists. I kid you not there is a drone project operated by the US National Security Agency of the same name. Now how could that possibly go wrong?
Okay, so I may have deliberately set out to paint a bleak future the human race for this Friday morning and while I do not suggest anyone needs to take Sarah Connor-like survival precautions for the time being, I don’t believe that DeepThought is going to move on from board games to take up more sporting pursuits such as fishing or hunting and that we all need to start preying that Asimov’s first Law of Robotics still hold good?! However I do feel that we need to keep across these developments.
As businesses and employees, we are on the cusp of significant change and to ignore this would be naive. This is beyond our parents having to learn how to set a video recorded.
What I am really asking is how familiar are you with ‘workplace automation’? You need to be as it is coming to a workplace near you and soon. Workplace automation is no longer simply about using ‘robotics’ in manufacturing to speed up processes and reduce cost, employee cost. It is expanding beyond typical blue-collar roles into white collar jobs.
In a recent article published in the McKinsey Quarterly ‘Four Fundamentals of Workplace Automation’, the trend of automation into more task previously undertaken by workers was observed along with a predicted expansion into a greater number of professional jobs.
It is an excellent article, and I would urge those who have taken the time to stay with me so far to click on the link below.
While the McKinsey Institute stopped short of suggesting that existing professional roles will be automated in their entirety in the near or medium term, it did forecast that elements within those roles will be automated resulting in the transformation of entire business processes and the jobs that people do. Basically job roles as we know them will be redefined.
The following extract is of particular note.
‘….our research suggests that as many as 45 percent of the activities individuals are paid to perform can be automated by adapting currently demonstrated technologies. In the United States, these activities represent about $2 trillion in annual wages. Although we often think of automation primarily affecting low-skill, low-wage roles, we discovered that even the highest-paid occupations in the economy, such as financial managers, physicians, and senior executives, including CEOs, have a significant amount of activity that can be automated.
The magnitude of automation potential reflects the speed with which advances in artificial intelligence and its variants, such as machine learning, are challenging our assumptions about what is automatable. It’s no longer the case that only routine, codifiable activities are candidates for automation and that activities requiring “tacit” knowledge or experience that is difficult to translate into task specifications are immune to automation.
In many cases, automation technology can already match, or even exceed, the median level of human performance required.’
Now let’s just stop there for a moment. Automation technology can already match or even exceed the median level of human performance required.
What the McKinsey Institute are effectively saying is that we are already inferior to existing technology as at 2016 in certain aspects of the roles we perform.
Their report went on:
‘According to our analysis, fewer than 5 percent of occupations can be entirely automated using current technology. However, about 60 percent of occupations could have 30 percent or more of their constituent activities automated. In other words, automation is likely to change the vast majority of occupations—at least to some degree—which will necessitate significant job redefinition and a transformation of business processes’.
Now at a time when the news is awash with driverless cars, drone use in exploration and warfare, and the potential of pizza deliveries to be provided by machines, it is likely that most businesses would benefit from increased automation and inevitably the potential for job losses as a consequence is significant.
Shareholders and investors will expect their CEOs to embrace greater automation and to take advantage of the possibilities that it provides for greater profitability and growth. Yes, there will be concerns over risk management and the potential for ‘hacking’ (we all saw the Tesla vehicle hacking on the news this week) however I question whether this should be any more concerning than the ability to hack the existing systems within most businesses.
Arguably automation should reduce risk in other areas as it will reduce the need for input from workers and thus minimises the risk of human error. At the same time it also reduces workplace health and safety concerns as individual workers are no longer required to undertake tasks that involve risk to their safety. Think about the changes in the resources sector and the use of automated vehicles. A good thing, yes?
There has been significant discussion in my area of work as to the extent to which legal services can be automated. I believe the answer to be yes and significantly. As with the McKinsey findings, the legal profession is not immune to this change, and there are many elements that are easily commoditised. It is largely irrelevant whether when commoditised if such services are outsourced to a third party or performed by a machine.
Would it surprise you to learn that a robot lawyer already exists? Needless to say it isn’t called ‘DeepThought’. The article is below.
http://www.techinsider.io/joshua-browder-bot-for-parking-tickets-2016-2
Changes to professional service providers will also affect accountancy practices and human resources departments. With the latter, automated induction processes and employee education and training systems, are already becoming the norm. Very few employees manually submit leave requests or required to complete hardcopy documents when preparing for a performance review. Paper HR policies and handbooks are already a thing of the past.
The speed with which technology is progressing is unprecedented and will present numerous challenges for employers and business owners. It is important that professional service providers remain alert to the possibility of automation and the benefits that it can provide to their clients.
I will finish with this. In 2008, the novel ‘True Love’ by Alexander Prokopovich became famous for being the first book authored by a computer program. A novel completely produced by a computer program.
Enjoy your weekend.
Alexander Prokopovich